‘There is no real reason for Johor to call for early elections as the state is relatively more stable’
PETALING JAYA: Johor Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi’s decision to dissolve the state assembly early has triggered speculation on a broader political “domino effect” in Malaysia, with analysts questioning whether the move could reshape electoral timing strategies ahead of the 16th General Election.
The southernmost state is expected to hold its election by end of July at the latest, setting up a high-stakes contest between Barisan Nasional (BN), Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Perikatan Nasional (PN), all of which have indicated plans to contest all 56 seats.
READ MORE: BN-PH cooperation remains most practical path in Melaka: Analyst
Political observers say the timing of the dissolution is less about constitutional necessity and more about strategic positioning.
“It signals political calculation on the incumbent (BN),” said International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst and Iseas–Yusof Ishak Institute fellow Assoc Prof Dr Syaza Syukri.
“There is no real reason for Johor to call for early elections as the state is relatively more stable,” she told theSun.
She said the move reflects confidence within BN and could set the tone for other elections, including potential pressure on federal timing.
“It is pushing (Prime Minister and PH president) Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim into a difficult spot because if BN does well it would probably pressure for an earlier general election,” she said.
She also said the decision could trigger wider political recalibration.
“I think it is possible for other states to go for elections soon, too. BN can say it is ready and challenge Negeri Sembilan, with (PH deputy chairman) Anthony Loke saying PH is ready too. So, will PH bite?
“Malacca is stable and there is no rumbling for an early election. But if Johor goes first (when it should come after Malacca and Sarawak), then there might be a push for Malacca as well. So now it is really a chicken game of who will give in,” she said.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan said the timing reflects confidence and internal constraints across political coalitions, particularly within the opposition.
“BN wants an early election, especially looking at PH with DAP’s latest fiasco involving Marina Ibrahim, PKR facing internal tension and potentially the entry of Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli’s Bersama party.
“PN also has its own internal problems and it is going to be very difficult for them to be ready within the next 60 days.
“BN, in terms of internal squabbling and internal problems, basically does not have this particular issue,” he said.
Despite the “unsurprising” decision in Johor, Azmi cautioned against over-interpreting its national implications, saying the state should not be seen as a national barometer.
“Johor has been a very strong Umno base. I think they will gain a few extra seats at the expense of PN in this case.
“However, we cannot say the strength of BN in Johor reflects nationally,” he said.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Mazlan Ali said BN’s early move is part of a strategic calculation to capitalise on turnout dynamics in a standalone state election.
He said local voter composition could favour BN in a lower-turnout scenario, particularly without external voters, but added that traditional advantages are no longer decisive.
“The advantages of machinery, finance and being the incumbent government do not guarantee absolute victory.
“Politics today is flat politics. Anyone has a chance to win if they are smart in planning their strategy and actions,” he said.
He also said the election is expected to be highly fragmented, with multi-cornered fights likely across all constituencies.
He said while BN remains structurally strong, electoral outcomes are increasingly shaped by voter behaviour rather than machinery alone.
