Contest likely to be straight fight between PH and BN: Analyst
PETALING JAYA: Negeri Sembilan’s snap state election is set to test political loyalties in one of Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) long-held strongholds, amid questions over whether the incumbent coalition is able defend its mandate or face a resurgence from Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN).
International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst and ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute fellow Assoc Prof Dr Syaza Shukri said PH may still hold an advantage in Negeri Sembilan, citing its position as a two-term incumbent and public satisfaction with Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun’s administration.
She added that the early election is “not very popular” among some voters, with parts of the electorate blaming Umno for withdrawing support from the state leadership, a factor that could potentially strengthen PH’s voter turnout.
“PH supporters might come out strongly to defend PH in Negeri Sembilan. The contest is likely to be a straight fight between PH and BN, with PN expected to face a tougher path in gaining ground.”
She also pointed out that Negeri Sembilan differs from Johor and Malacca due to its high number of voters working in the Klang Valley, who might have no problem returning home to vote, which could help push turnout above 60%, a level that traditionally benefits PH.
Syaza said BN’s main opportunity lies in recovering Malay votes that shifted to PN in the 2023 election, rather than directly eroding PH’s support base.
“The only way BN could have an advantage is if PH voters do not turn out to vote.
“However, sentiment in Negeri Sembilan is different, as voters likely want to defend the PH administration.
“In 2023, PN gained because some Malay voters rejected the BN-PH alliance.
“PN may still retain a few seats such as Labu and Paroi, but is unlikely to make major breakthroughs.”
She described the election as “50-50”, depending on voter turnout and whether BN could regain Malay support, while also highlighting the growing influence of younger voters who may favour PH.
“We will watch whether BN (is able to) convince the Malay voters to return to Umno or perhaps PAS’s influence has breached southern Peninsular Malaysia.”
University of Tasmania Asia Institute Tasmania director Prof James Chin said PH had little choice but to call a state election due to rising political instability in Negeri Sembilan, including tensions over attempts to replace the state Ruler and challenges in the state assembly.
“If they don’t go for it, then Umno may even push for a vote of no confidence.”
He said all major coalitions could benefit from the election in different ways depending on their performance.
He said PH, especially DAP, would aim to defend and strengthen its Chinese-majority seats, while BN, particularly Umno, could gain influence if it wins the state government, and PAS under PN is looking to show it could make gains in the state.
He also emphasised the possible entry of Bersama could further complicate voter dynamics, particularly among Chinese voters who may now have an additional political alternative.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan said the timing of Negeri Sembilan’s snap state election appears to be closely linked to broader political strategy.
He said while Johor’s earlier election was seen to create positive political momentum for Umno, Negeri Sembilan is now in a more “awkward position” as it cannot wait for the outcome of other political developments that could benefit Umno.
“Compared with Johor, Negeri Sembilan has more locally rooted issues linked to its monarchy system and Adat Perpatih, where Umno and PH are seen as taking different positions.”
He added that Umno in Negeri Sembilan is not as strong as in Johor, although it remains in a relatively stable position.
However, he suggested that the political advantage seen in Johor could be offset if elections are held simultaneously across states.
Azmi said the monarchy-related issues could become a central theme in the Negeri Sembilan campaign, potentially shaping voter sentiment in the upcoming state election.
